Who will be the next to leave?
Polymarket
Tulsi Gabbard 27%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer 21%
Pete Hegseth 16%
Howard Lutnick 10%
The betting above is restricted to cabinet members.
I don’t see Hegseth as a smart bet, since he is a white, male Christian. I can’t see Trump firing him unless Iran goes so far south that Trump needs a scapegoat. Lutnick is not a Christian, but he has some insulation because of his friendship with Trump, and I don’t think Trump really cares about religion other than as a tool to pander to his base. Faith requires the acknowledgement of a power higher than oneself, which Trump is not wont to do. If Jesus returned and criticized the President, Trump would call him a “low IQ God.”
Given Trump’s need for sycophancy, Gabbard could be in trouble. She is not an enthusiastic supporter of his Iran strategy, and she is an ethnic woman. That’s three strikes when Trump is the umpire.
Outside the cabinet:
The betting on Kash Patel is that he will be gone soon. If you want to bet on him getting nuked before the end of August, you would risk 98 cents to earn two cents! It is an even money wager that he will be out by the end of June

