Last week’s #3, Texas A&M. seemed to be headed for a record-breaking loss for a team ranked that high. They went to the locker room down 30-3. Not only did they avoid a shellacking, they actually won the game. As ESPN put it:
It was the biggest comeback in school history, the largest comeback win in the FBS this season and the largest comeback in an SEC game in the past 20 years as they moved to 10-0 for the first time since 2012. SEC teams had lost 286 straight games since 2004 when trailing by at least 27 points.
Last week’s #16, Georgia Tech, pulled off a minor miracle of their own. They went into the 4th quarter losing by 11 to Boston Fucking College, a team with no conference wins and a 1-9 record. Tech did manage to pull it out, 36-34, but a narrow escape against a weak BC team, while allowing BC to collect 537 yards from scrimmage, is not going to improve their brand image, come committee time.
Last week’s #11, Oklahoma, and #4, Alabama, fought back and forth, but somebody had to win. In this case it was Oklahoma, 23-21, although Oklahoma’s offense sputtered, and Alabama amassed about twice as many yards from scrimmage. The Tide handed the game away by turning it over at three critical times. One of them was an interception that was run back for a TD, and another was a fumbled punt return, deep in their own territory. They also got a FG blocked. Props to the Oklahoma defense, which did what their offense could not. Oklahoma will pull up at least two spots from #11, which is a very big deal, because it elevated them from “out of the tournament” to “in.” They have close to zero chance to win the conference, so they have to stay in the top ten. It won’t be easy. They still have two tough games (Missouri and LSU).
Last week’s #5, Georgia, defeated #10, Texas. It was close for a while, then Georgia pulled away at the end. Texas has probably blown its chance at the post-season tournament. They won’t win the conference, and they have little chance to claw back into the top ten.
Last week’s #15, Miami, has two chances to make the playoff: either win the ACC championship game (they still could get in that game if a lot of things go their way), or battle back into the top ten. They made a positive move with a 41-7 victory over NC State. I’m typing this before the committee convenes, but they should move up at least one spot, passing Texas, but everyone else above them will probably stay above them
#13 Utah is in exactly the same position as Miami, in that they are one of the top ten teams in the computer rankings, and have two good chances to get in the playoff, but need help with both. If the season ended today, the Big 12 championship game would be contested between Texas Tech and BYU, with Utah just missing. Texas Tech is almost secure. Utah can’t pass Texas Tech under any circumstances. Even if Tech (7-1 conference record) loses its remaining game and Utah wins out, they would have the same record and Tech has the tie-breaker over Utah. BYU (6-1) also has the tie-breaker over Utah, so Utah can’t pass them unless BYU loses both of their remaining games. Very little chance.
Unless they catch some breaks, Utah and Miami may have the unfortunate status of “best teams outside the tournament,” while some inferior Sun Belt or American conference team sneaks in.
What about those 11th and 12th seeds in the post-season playoff?
Unheralded James Madison continued a quixotic quest for a seed, presumably the 12th, by demolishing App State, 58-10. Their former top rival for the spot, South Florida, lost to Navy, but North Texas emerged as a new rival by crushing UAB, 53-24, to improve to 9-1. The committee refuses to list either James Madison or North Texas. Their current pick for the 12th seed is Tulane, which is currently topping the list of the “most overrated teams.”
The other automatic post-season slot, seed #11, will probably go to the ACC winner. If the regular season had ended today, the conference championship game would pit Georgia Tech against Virginia, but that race is far from decided. There are two other teams (Pitt, SMU) with a single conference loss, and powerful Miami is lurking in 5th place with two losses, hoping for others to falter. Virginia seems like a sure bet to make the championship game since their only remaining game is against Virginia Tech. Georgia Tech will be in if they beat Pitt, since that would complete their conference play with just a single loss. Miami needs Pitt to beat Georgia Tech, then they need to beat Pitt, and they need SMU to lose both of their games, because SMU has the tie-breaker over Miami if they each finish with two losses.
Frankly, Georgia Tech does not deserve to be in the ACC championship game. They looked weak the last two weeks, with a loss to mediocre NC State and a narrow escape against bottom-dwelling Boston College. In the course of the year, they got the ultimate break in the conference schedule by avoiding Virginia, Miami and SMU. I expect them to lose to Pitt next week, although they are at home and favored by 2.5.
The computer models rank Georgia Tech outside of the top 30 in the nation, while they place Miami in the top ten. The committee also agrees that Miami is the best team in the conference. Unfortunately for the Hurricanes, none of that gives them a championship, which will be won on the field.
Overrated teams o’ the week
The AP voters came up with an eccentric new choice to fill the top 25 – Tulane. They have played exactly one tough team, Mississippi, which resulted in s 45-10 drubbing. The voters, and to some extent the committee as well, try to create the illusion that the teams from minor conferences are much better than they are. I suppose it’s a PC thing. Penn State is 15th in the Big 10, but I’d bet they’d be resting their starters in the second half against Tulane. Arkansas is winless in the SEC, dead last in the conference, but I think they would be favored by a full touchdown against Tulane.
On the computer rankings, there are two FCS teams rated higher than Tulane! That said, it seems that Tulane has some chance to win the American conference, which could earn them a spot in the post-season playoff, if the committee ranks them above the winner of the Sun Belt conference (presumably James Madison).
The current list. (Based on the new Sagarin computer ratings and this week’s AP poll.)
1. 38 places (!!) – Tulane (62, 24)
2. 26 places – Houston (51, 25)
3. 24 places – North Texas (46,22)
4. 20 places – Georgia Tech (35, 15)
5. 17 places – Virginia (36,19)
James Madison and BYU disappeared from the list because they proved themselves approximately equal to their rankings.
Cincinnati disappeared because the voters finally realized they just weren’t that good.
What happened to last week’s most overrated teams? (Based on last week’s Sagarin computer ratings and last week’s AP poll.)
1. Virginia – 24 places (44,20) WON, beating Duke 34-17, presumably knocking Duke out of the ACC race.
2. James Madison – 17 places (41,24) WON by a mile, 58-10
3. Georgia Tech – 16 places (30,14) WON, barely squeaking by lowly Boston College.
3. Cincinnati – 16 places (38,22) LOST to unranked Arizona.
5. BYU – 14 places – (26,12) WON, defeating TCU easily.
On the other side of the tracks
Kent State won their fourth game of the year! They are 3-3 in their conference. As ol’ Mel Allen used to say, “How about that?”
Poor U Mass remained winless by being on the wrong side of a 45-3 drubbing. They are the only winless FBS team.
