Three possibilities:
If Mitch keeps the seat, the GOP will be missing a vote until (and if) he can return. This could affect, for example, confirmation hearings.
If Mitch dies or resigns more than 56 days before his term expires, the governor must call a special election to select a temporary replacement to serve out the remainder of the term. A Republican victory would be overwhelmingly likely,
If Mitch dies or resigns 56 days or less before his term expires, there is insufficient time to legally set up a special election. In this scenario, the seat remains vacant until the next regularly scheduled election day, and the Republicans lose one vote for those 56 days as well as the days between electioon day and swearing-in.
Kentucky is one of five states where the governor cannot name a replacement.
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A fourth possibility: Democrats take the 2024 succession law to court and win.
In case a court voided the 2024 law in its entirety and treated the 2021 statute as controlling, Governor Andy Beshear would regain a tightly limited appointment power, but in no case could a Democrat get the seat.
Because McConnell is a Republican, the Kentucky Republican Party’s state executive committee would submit three names. Beshear would be required to appoint one of those three. The appointee must have been continuously registered as a Republican since December 31 of the preceding year. Beshear would have 21 days after the party submits its list to make the appointment. The statute does not clearly impose a deadline on the party committee for submitting the list.
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If Mitch can’t return to work:
For Republicans, the best scenario is for McConnell to resign now, with the effect that, assuming the same candidates run in the special election as in the main one, the GOP would be able to replace McConnell in November rather than January.
For Democrats, the best scenario is Zombie Mitch – for McConnell to remain alive without resigning, but unable to cast his votes. This could cost the GOP a vote in some crucial upcoming votes.
You’re missing the atomic bomb hidden in the special election that’s driving all this: Massie.
He’ll run. He even has a good chance of winning.
Then, Trump has the biggest Epstein files preacher as a senator until well after he dies or goes to prison.
They’ll do anything to get to August 3rd.
Interesting about Thomas Massie, but if he couldn’t even win his own district, I’m not sure he can win the Rethug U.S Senate primary.
I’m actually not sure what the big deal about this race is.
1.Although I believe McConnell can vote remotely, I’m pretty sure he’s already missed multiple consecutive votes, almost certainly because he’s dead.
2.He isn’t running again anyway and this seat is up this year, and the race to replace him will almost certainly go to the Rethugs since they have a mainstream candidate for a Rethug who is currently the Lexington based representative in the U.S House (Andy Barr). The Democrats meanwhile are running a ‘progressive’ retread (Charles Booker) (he’s making his third run for the Senate, the first time he won the nomination, the second time he lost the nomination to a high ranking women retired military officer who was more centrist, but turned out, to be regarded as an insincere generic centrist.
If there is a special election, most likely these would be the same two candidates, though since it would only be for the lame duck session, it might not be.
I have to imagine the real goal for the Democrats here is to show that the Rethugs are so extreme now that they’re even trying to hide that one of their senators is dead. However, I know I’m missing something since I have no idea why the Rethugs are even doing this.
There is also the irony that McConnell was first elected to the Senate back in 1984 (42 years ago, 7 terms) by lying that the incumbent Democrat (Walter Huddleston) didn’t show up for work. McConnell even ran a commercial featuring a trained dog trying to find Huddleston.)
Democrats take back the senate? 😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😅😅😅😅😅😅