A Trump share cost 67 cents on Wednesday. The cost today is 54 cents and it is still steadily falling. The current price is approximately in line with 538’s estimate of Trump’s chances, so maybe that recent decline is just some kind of course correction. Frankly, I have no idea what the whole cycle has meant.
If I were a paranoid man, I would say that some crypto-rich Trump nuts were using the betting markets to set up his next January 6th, so he can say “How can I have lost if I had a 67% chance of winning? They must have cheated.”
I don’t think that, but it’s as good an explanation as any other I’ve read.
Although the national polls are still quite even, the betting market now shows Harris with an implied 75% chance of winning the popular vote. Trump’s chances are in free fall in this market as well. The Trump “share” was priced at 43 cents Monday, but has tumbled to 25 cents today – a 40% drop in value in just a week.
In the first one, the crypto degens profited, a lot of them put it on X that they would rather take the profit(me too), because in the end the chance is 50-50 this year. Also, the 30-35% was obviously undervalued. Financial markets have been waiting for Trump’s victory in recent weeks, but there is still a lot of uncertainty. Pump and corrections.
Anyway, it’s very simple. If anyone watches X and, if I remember correctly, FOX, they expect Trump to win. If you follow any other mainstream media, you’re obviously expecting Harris to win. It’s not complicated.
Most people I know who follow other mainstream media (myself included) do not *expect* Harris to win. They’ve been saying for months it’s an incredibly tight race, whether or not the polls are totally off this year, no one feels confident. Especially considering potential shenanigans. I really hope it doesn’t stoop that low.
Keep hope alive!
I can understand that they wanted to take the profit. I don’t understand how they found anyone to buy at 67! Risking 67 with a 53% chance to win 33 is a sure ticket to the poor house
538 is owned by ABC news, which is about as mainstream as you can get, and they are posting a 53% likelihood of a Trump victory. I can’t recall anyone “expecting” Harris to win. Everyone seems to think it is a coin flip.
Why would Trump be doing better now that in 2020? Anybody who is not a Trump humper got an answer for that?
Young men being brainwashed by wanna be alpha male Youtubers and Musk, with them hoping they match young women coming out. Republicans holding their nose and voting the party line in the end no matter what, because it’s ingrained in them to do so like paying the bills. And also the correlation of inflation during the past four years with the myth that Trump somehow could have done any better, with the typical immigration scare tactics.
That’s the primary argument for him. Funny, Split Ticket has it 53% for Harris, I don’t know what Nate Silver has it now but has constantly had it a tossup and I don’t think it’s ever been modeled or polled as anything but a tossup.
I really can’t argue with you. But given the higher employment rate, has inflation really been that bad? I grew up in the 60’s, 70’s, and early 80’s. In comparison, the current inflation seems minor to me. But maybe I am insulated from it. Certainly I am not living paycheck to paycheck, or on a minimal income.
I don’t know, but I know that Trump did better in 2020 than in 2016 with previous voters. Among voters who had voted before, he broke dead even with Biden, whereas he had lost the popular vote to Hilary by three million in 2016, so net gain for Trump. It’s sad to report that some people seem to have changed their minds in his favor!
(Biden picked up all of his edge from new voters in 2020. There were 22 million voters who had not participated in previous elections, and they broke 14-7-1, thus giving the Sleepy One his entire seven million edge.)
So the point here is that previous voters swung slightly in Trump’s favor after his time in office.
Now – why is Trump still improving from 2020 to 2024? Well, we know his approval ratings are higher now than they were when he left office, so it doesn’t surprise me that he’s a little bit stronger in the polls as well. People have had a very short memory of January 6th. What seemed shameful, dangerous and treasonous in the heat of the moment has been somewhat successfully rehabilitated by Trump and his band of sycophants. (Even Mitch McConnell seems to have forgotten the things he said and the feelings he had after Jan 6)
Well, now I’m just sad.
I was thinking the betting situation was a mirage. But now that Iowa polling favors Harris by 3 & gamblers changed their tune, they must have a crystal ball.
Just kidding. After looking at the snake at 538, Harris has to run her table and also pick up another state from leans red. Assuming she wins all three of the blue wall bricks. Trump just has to pick off one of them, could then lose either AZ or NV and still win.
Meanwhile, R seems likely to win the senate, & if D doesn’t outperform +3 in the popular vote, R will likely hold the house too. Yum, yum, dog food. Still, I can hold out for a surprising poll miss.
The only betting markets that are of any value are the original Iowa Electronics Market (its first Presidential prediction market was in 1988) and Predictit, because these to markets limit the amount a person can invest to $500. Every other so-called prediction market allows unlimited amounts which creates the same ability to manipulate as the meme stocks.
It’s a shame that some selfish wealthy people have corrupted an academic concept but this isn’t the first time.
There’s a few reasons:
– Trump betting whale put $30 mil on him, for whatever reason. I guess if you have that much money to make a game out of it, may as well blow it. It tilted hard in his direction after some whaling.
– Ann Selzer’s Iowa poll has Harris up 3, which is unheard of for a state Trump carried by 8 or 9 points last election. Her methodology has been extremely accurate, predicting Trump big in Iowa twice before, even in 2016 where it was out of nowhere and she was thought to be an outlier. I don’t think she’s missed a federal election, including mid-terms, by more than 2 percentage points in the past 12 years. Now, that could be because Iowa has some specific anti-abortion laws that went into effect and turned the people there against him, or the crosstabs of the demographics of people have carryover into other states like Wisconsin and Michigan. Typically these things don’t happen in a vacuum and are like an underlying current across other states.
– Polls have been criticized for herding, meaning no one wants to be incorrect so almost every pollster has all the swing states either tied, or within one for either candidate. Nate Silver did a statistical analysis of how improbable it is that everyone would get the same exact result, and the explanation is no one wants to be wrong and show an outlier poll – that is except Ann Selzer.
We’ll see, I see a lot of people saying it’s similar to a reverse 2016 where Harris has the vibes and is filling her rallies and Trump is auditoriums out in the middle of nowhere with huge sections empty. Neither result will surprise me, I do know if Harris wins though and if it’s by a few electoral votes, the Republicans are going to try to keep from certifying that state if they control it and take it. For all the steal talk, it’s just projection from Trump on what he wishes to do himself.
As an early 538 member in 2008, Silver was spot on re: Obama’s 2008 win. Since then not so much. IOW even a blind squirrel occasionally finds an acorn. 😛
Vote early and often!
Yielding back the balance of my time …
It was probably the blowjob 😛
You have to be completely braindead to have lived through the last 4 years and want more of this shitshow. Shut the damn TV off FFS.
Makes no sense to me. 538 is clear: their stimulations give an edge to Trump, but with all seven battleground states within the margin of error, the race might not even be close, even though it’s close, because of this electoral college idiocy. We’re 48 hours out and it’s a toss up. No clue what the bookies are doing.
What’s your take on the snake chart? To me, looks like Harris has to grab some leans red states, Trump can lose a couple & still not even need any leans blue. Looks to me like Dems get out the vote may be the only way to snatch the house from the jaws of defeat, otherwise turnout may not be enough to escape total slaughter.
My gloom is tempered only by the knowledge that I’m full of shit.
You aren’t entirely wrong.
The big factor here is almost definitely going to be abortion. I told all my people on the right that killing RvW wasn’t something to be celebrated. It didn’t = “no more abortion” it turned the country into the wild west.
And it also removed the concept of litmus test voters. Nothing to win, no need to hold your nose and vote orange.
You can see it in national messaging: the right only has the border and trans issues, two things most voters don’t give a shit about. (Biden effectively ended the border crisis in September with asylum rules changes paired with more enforcement from Mexico. Nobody gives a fuck about trans stuff except the right, who are obsessed.)
On the left? Abortion, wall to wall. States like Texas playing right into their hands, becoming every nightmare scenario wrapped into one.
They lost Kansas previously. They’ve been losing lots of races since RvW was ended. That’ll be what drives this more than the rapist/traitor/felon thing, as mad as that is.
There’s seven swing states, to make it simple, Harris needs WI/MI/PA to win basically. Harris’ best state is considered MI and Trump’s is AZ of the seven.
The NYT/Marist final poll, which is considered a top tier pollster, only had Trump winning AZ and the rest tied or Harris leading among the seven but all within +1 or +2. Emerson just released one, and it was similar with more going for Trump, but also in the +1 territory. Then you have outliers like Selzer’s Iowa +3 Harris, who is considered the gold standard because of the thoroughness of the polling, that predicted Trump being way above what he was thought nationally the last two elections and if accurate would be a reverse 2016 scenario for Harris.
No one knows. Every model is subjective and weighs different things in polls. And then the polls themselves are subjective, because they’re taking an ~800 person sample of people who actually respond to their calls with response rates 10% or less and then trying to apply who answers to demographics across the state in wide generalizations. Supposedly polling errors from the past were angry Trump voters that hung up, that are now being corrected for. In the end, it’s going to be in the range of how close the past two elections were and that’s basically all that can be determined.
Prediction: Trump will be hospitalized with a week or two of losing. It won’t be the shame of losing that puts him there. He knows he’s going to prison. And he won’t have millions of brainwashed maga morons trying to start a war to get him out. He’ll just have people named Snake or Blister, who want to butt fuck him.
If he loses AND he loses the treason and document trials, yeah, he’s going to suddenly become completely non-compus due to dementia. Otherwise, no, he’ll just keep delaying and fighting.
I don’t think he’ll ever go to prison, but if it ever came to that, I’m pretty sure he’d go Full Manafort, with the fake wheelchair (or some similar scam).
“”” If “”” he loses he’ll die before the appeals process is finalized. But he could get jailed for contempt during the court process. Judges will be in no mood for his continuing bullshit/whining/threats, etc.
Weinstein, Epstein both got put in cells. Sometimes the system works a little.
I really wish the net had a damnatio mori setting and we never had to read that name, hear that whiny voice, or see that butt-ugly face (apologies to all butts everywhere) again.
Right there with you, Indy. We deserve to be free of him at long last; we shouldn’t have to wait for him to die.
I hope he fucks off into the sun after this if he loses. Personally, I don’t care much about imprisonment and getting a pound of flesh, any additional day of him in the news or in the media just fuels the persecution complex and his cult of personality even more.
I hope all his legal issues go to plea deals and just hit him in pocketbook. The prolonged grievance/persecution complex from him running his mouth is doing the world no favors.