As you can guess, the odds on the 2024 election have become less favorable to Biden since the debate. As of this morning, you could get odds better than 4-to-1 on some of the international markets. He is currently seen as having 17% to 30% chance of winning.
But that’s not the interesting thing, which is that you don’t have to wait until the election to profit (or lose). Some of the international gaming exchanges buy and sell shares based on the current odds, and you can sell at any time. For example, if you bought “shares” in Joe Biden at Polymarket before the debate, they would have cost you 35 cents. If you sold those same shares immediately after the debate, they would have brought you 17 cents, so the debate would have cost you about half of your wager.
The cost of the shares fluctuates based on their odds of winning. Biden is currently considered to have a 20% chance on that market, so the shares currently cost 20 cents to buy, and will get 19 cents if you sell now.
If you could have known the outcome of the debate, you could have made a fortune betting on Gavin Newsome or Michelle Obama. You could have bought shares of either of them for two cents that morning and sold them for seven cents that evening. Of course, Newsome is right back down to 2.5 cents now and Michelle is down to 3.2 cents, so timing is everything. (You can currently buy shares in Hillary Clinton for 3/10 of a cent.)
Biden shares seem like a pretty good bet at the moment. That doesn’t mean you think he would win, but simply that his odds would improve. He’s now seen as having only a 20% chance to win (20 cents per share), and that’s near the very bottom of his range. If you think that things will probably smooth out, and his chance of winning will probably climb back into the 35 cent (35%) range, you could nearly double your money if you buy and sell at the right times. (On the other hand, you could lose every penny. The value of his shares will drop to zero if he resigns or is dumped from the ticket. Needless to say, they will also drop to zero if you hold on to them until election night and he loses, but will pay off at 100 cents if he should win.)
The obligatory warning: These speculations are for entertainment purposes only. Betting on U.S. elections is illegal in the USA.
Biden should just have Trump assassinated, as an official act.
Absurdly, the ruling basically says just that. The court threw out that obvious nonsense about the connection between impeachment, or lack thereof, and criminal liability, so Biden would be free from criminal charges even if impeached and convicted by the Senate. (That would simply transfer power to Harris, while Biden would be free to retire in comfort.)
The Supreme Court ruling means, in effect, that whichever party gains power is allowed to take whatever official action is needed to hold onto it forever, including assassination. This is very bad for the Democrats, who would never use power in that way, so we are just waiting for Republicans to get the White House, whereupon they will hold it forever.
My question? If the Senate actually did “convict” Trump at his impeachment(s) could scotus overrule? And why didn’t scotus just wait until after each of Trump as potus govt trial(s) to overrule said convictions which this ruling signifies they were going to do anyways since these 6 totalitarian Fascists are totally in the tank for Trump!
And so it goes …
btw, it was a good run for America, so to speak, ie 248+ yrs as a democracy.
Indeed, very bad for democrats by definition means very bad for democracy! It’s over folks !!! Thanx for cumin’ and have a safe drive home.
No. Impeachment can’t be reviewed. The Constitution is completely clear on this point. The U.S. Constitution gives the House of Representatives the “sole Power of Impeachment” and the Senate the “sole Power to try all Impeachments.” (Art. 1, sec. 2, and Art. I, sec. 3.) If the Court could overrule either, the Court would have power over impeachment and that would be in conflict with the Constitution.
Indeed, if the Supreme Court tried to intervene, it would be grounds for their own impeachment. The Congress could impeach and convict any justice who voted to override the conviction!
(In fact, in the most extreme example, the Congress has the power to simultaneously impeach and convict all nine Supreme Court justices, which would make it very difficult for anyone to review the case!)
It’s nice when people drop the act and reveal how they truly feel ^_^
And maybe 6 scotus judges as well. 😛 The irony.
btw, regardless of who Trump is running against, “if” he wins after all his “illegality”, unprofessional acts, nihilism, misogyny etc, etc, it’s on the American voter period, full stop!
We get the govt “we” deserve. Happy trails …
betting on Biden would also be betting that he doesn’t actually croak before the election. That alone seems like a tough bet.
Part of me thinks he already croaked a couple years ago and what we see now is a malfunctioning cybertronic version.
To go a bit further on this, there are people trying to minimize this ruling.
It is absolutely true that President’s have had defacto immunity for their official acts including things that are almost certainly illegal. Nixon bombing Laos and Cambodia as well as mining the harbors there was likely illegal, but nobody (not just the President) ever faced any criminal charges over that. Congress considered that as an Article of Impeachment and voted against it.
From what I’ve read from lawyers about this ruling, it goes far beyond that.
People who think that’s all it says are either brain-dead Trump cultists, are entirely dense or are suffering from normalcy bias.
1This ruling creates a de jure distinction between Presidential acts and non-Presidential acts. The problem from what I’ve read, is that this Supreme Court has taken the power away from the Justice Department (and possibly Congress) to even investigate whether and act is Presidential or not.
2.There are some who argue that even if the President can’t be charged for an illegal act, that those who carry out the orders can be charged. Aside from the ability of the President to assassinate somebody themselves (or stand in the middle of fifth avenue and shoot somebody) at best there is a gray area. Since the Presidential order can’t be investigated to determine if it was legal or not, who can determine if the action carried out was legal or not?
3.Let’s assume I’m wrong with that, and somehow a person carrying out a Presidential ordered assassination can be charged, This ruling seems to give the Presidency the absolute authority to fire any civil servant. So, the Department of Justice wants to investigate, fire those who do. And, if that doesn’t happen, the President now has full immunity in issuing pardons. So, the President gives a preemptive pardon to who ever committed the assassination.
I’m not saying this Supreme Court ruling was written specifically to allow a President to have their own personal hit-man unit (like maybe in the film The Parallax View) but people who are claiming this ruling doesn’t change anything, are looking at each of the parts of this decision in isolation and not in totality. The parts of this ruling when combined are sweeping in allowing for a President to become a dictator.
Yeah, betting on Biden would be a good bet right about now. Even if he doesn’t win, the chances he will win will probably grow closer to election/on election night.
I think so too. Trump lost in 2020 when there wasn’t this much at stake. (Anybody here think Trump actually won in 2020?)
The Democrats sure as hell set themselves up for a disaster when they nominated a nincompoop for VP with a candidate turning 81 before his term’s end. If Biden withdraws, do they piss off two major constituencies and pick someone new or stick with an assured loser whose only abilities are networking and word salad. If they don’t take both chambers of Congress, we are so screwed with the MAGA Court.
Have been thinking this for the past 4 yrs ie America is screwed regardless of what happens in Nov. Trump’s cuckold lemmings who think he is the second cumin’ aren’t going anywhere anytime soon. Indeed, around 36/37% of the electorate is certifiable!
Yielding back the balance of my time …
Couple mos after Trump became king Jon Meacham mentioned on Morning Joe the Founding Fathers would probably have been surprised someone like Trump didn’t happen a lot earlier in American history.
Apparently Aaron Burr was a lot like Trump.