The commmittee’s latest rankings are now public.
The conference championship games have been set.
In the most unlikely match-up, Virginia and Duke will play for the ACC championship. Duke needed about a zillion different things to happen in the last three weeks in order to crack the safe, and all the tumblers somehow fell into place.
If Virginia wins that game, they would be the fourth-best champion, and would therefore get the 11th seed. Duke, with five losses, is unlikely to make the playoff even with a conference championship. Only five conference champions get automatic bids, and they would likely be the sixth-best conference champion, assuming a James Madison win in the Sun Belt
A Duke win is not that unlikely. Virginia is only favored by 3.5.
========
In the Big 12, Texas Tech will play BYU. Each team has something important to play for. Tech’s spot in the playoff seems secure, win or lose, but a Tech win is the difference between a first-round bye and a lower spot in the pecking order. A BYU win will guarantee them the tenth seed, but a loss will eliminate them from the playoff.
The game will be played in Arlington (Texas Tech is 300 miles away, in Lubbock), so I suppose neither team has a home field advantage, but Tech has the home state advantage. Tech is favored by 12.5.
WEIRDEST SCENARIO: A BYU win could give the Big Ten three of the first-round byes!
========
The loss by Texas A&M means that Georgia and Alabama will play for the SEC championship. Georgia will make the playoff, win or lose, but a win will secure a first-round bye. An Alabama win would guarantee them at least the ninth seed if BYU wins, or at least the tenth seed if BYU loses. Alabama will be one of the bubble boys if they lose.
========
Tulane and North Texas will battle for the American Conference title. Based on the committee’s rankings, the winner of that game is guaranteed a playoff spot. In the case of a Duke win in the ACC, the American champ would get the 11th seed. If Virginia wins the ACC, the American champ would get the twelfth seed.
The committee ranks Tulane higher than North Texas, but the bookies disagree. NT is favored by 2.5, even though they are on the road.
========
James Madison will battle Troy for the Sun Belt crown. Madison is favored by more than three touchdowns. If they win, and Duke wins the ACC, Madison should get the twelfth seed, promoting the American Conference champion to the eleventh seed.
If Virginia wins the ACC. Madison can’t make the playoff unless the the committee vaults them over the American Conference winner into the twelfth seed. Such a leapfrog seems unlikely, but it’s not impossible because North Texas is only rated one slot higher than Madison in the national rankings, and they are the likely winner in their game against Tulane.
So the kids at James Madison need to steamroll Troy by about a zillion points and root North Texas to look bad in a win. That gives them a hope.
And even with that in the bag on Friday, they’ll also be rooting hard for Duke on Saturday night, because that one gives them a guarantee rather than a hope. This may mark the first time in history that someone other than a Duke student or alum ever rooted for them.
========
In the Big Ten, Indiana and Ohio State are playing with house money. They will both make the playoff, the winner will get the top seed, and the loser will still get a first-round bye. (I assume. It’s unlikely that a loss would drop the loser to the fifth slot since that is currently occupied by idle Oregon, which finished below both of them in the same conference.)
The bubble boys
These eight teams seem completely safe for a playoff spot:
Ohio State
Indiana
Georgia
Texas Tech
Oregon
Ole Miss
Texas A&M
Oklahoma
The 11th and 12th seeds will go to the fourth and fifth best conference champions.
A. With a BYU win and an Alabama win, all twelve spots will be filled, leaving these two teams out of the playoff.
Notre Dame
Miami
B. With a BYU win and Alabama loss, there will be eleven secure spots, leaving only one for these three teams:
losing Alabama
Notre Dame
Miami
The committee has ranked Notre Dame over Miami, and they are both idle, so Miami is out in this scenario, and the committee would have to choose between losing Alabama and idle Notre Dame. That’s a tough call, likely to spur a lively debate between two of the most passionate fan bases in America.
C. If both BYU and Alabama lose, there will be only ten secure spots, meaning that two of these teams will make it
losing Alabama
Notre Dame
Miami
In this case, no matter the final ranking of Alabama, Notre Dame is in, and the committee would have to choose between losing Alabama and idle Miami. Another tough one.
Therefore, in order for Miami to make the playoff, three things must happen:
1. BYU must lose (likelihood high; they are 13-point dogs).
2. Alabama must lose (likelihood moderate; they are 3-point dogs).
3. The committee must vault idle Miami over losing Alabama. (likelihood unknown).
The Miami kids need to root for Georgia and Texas Tech.
Yes, I know it would be silly and unjust to leave Notre Dame and Miami out in the cold, while the weaker conference champions make it. The computer rankings list Notre Dame #2 in the nation, and Miami #6. Notre Dame would be nearly a three-touchdown favorite over North Texas or Tulane, approximately a two-touchdown favorite over James Madison, and about a ten-point favorite over BYU.
And Miami is just as good as Notre Dame. In fact, they already beat them earlier this year, thanks to two key Irish turnovers.
Yes, it would be unjust.
But the cookie may crumble that way.
