Biden’s chance of winning the election is now down to 12%, according to Polymarket. He is now in third place! That exchange indicates that Kamala Harris is now more likely to win the 2024 election than Biden, although they are both long shots. Trump’s current “stock” price is based on a 64% chance of winning.
I didn’t think Biden would drop further when his “shares” were at twenty cents (20% chance) the last time I looked. This latest shift doesn’t mean that Trump’s chance of election has improved. The reason for Biden’s decline is not an increased likelihood for Trump, but speculation about Biden being replaced on the ticket. In the evening of the 29th, Biden was at 22%, Harris at 2%. Now it is 12% and 14%, respectively. Trump has held steady at 64%, with the remainder of the pie being split among RFK2 and minor Democratic hopefuls.
In related news, Trump just referred to Biden as “an old broken-down pile of crap.” I’m beginning to suspect that this Trump fellow may not be a very nice man.
@skynews Donald Trump has called Joe Biden an 'old, broken down pile of crap' and suggested the president is about to 'quit the race', as he criticised his TV debate performance in a leaked video. #trump #biden #uspolitics ♬ original sound – Sky News
Really appreciate the political posts. Nothing like a little depression to start the day with.
If depression comes with boobs, is it really depression?
No way Dems would eff up their candidate TWICE by selecting Kamala. It will be Joe or it will be Gavin Newsom.
Bernie would have won, but nooooo, they had to have Hilary. DON’T say they can’t fuck this up.
Trump had a 33% chance of winning in 2016 at 538. Most betting markets said he had no chance. btw, Dems were supposed to be wiped out in the 2020 mid-terms 😮 wtf happened?
Yielding back the balance of my time …
2022 mid-terms
The exception proves the rule. Biden is dead in the water.
Do you think the debate, and the recent Supreme Court immunity decision, and the GOP’s Project 2025, and the whole last four years make Trump look like somebody that more people want to put in the White House now than in 2020? You really think one bad night is going to turn that many people off Biden? I don’t know, but that’s sure not the way I’d bet.
The President of the United States appeared to be senile. That’s not something people will forget easily. His handlers, trying to excuse his performance by saying he had a cold, just made it worse.
I suppose Biden could recover by giving some interviews where he displays a sharp wit and a total command of complex facts.
But I don’t expect that.
If the election were held at this moment, he would have a hard time defeating Cornpop.
Biden “They’ll have to pry my cold dead hands from the Presidency/nomination”
Everybody else: That’s what we’re all afraid of, Joe!
Everyone’s so nice to him, why can’t he just be nice back??? I’m going to get my tissues. Heckuva job, Bideny!!!
In the past, we have always expected the President to be able to express thoughts in a more sophisticated manner than the special-needs drunk at the end of the bar.
But I guess we can learn to be flexible.
“Somewhat more sophisticated manner”? Obviously you mean like this.
Apologies to Peter …
It really sucks that the dems are shitting the bed on this one. I mean, I don’t like Biden, but Trump and Project 2025 are terrifying
Find a better candidate…see Whitmer.
Newsom would be a better candidate, though him sending covid patients to nursing homes and the resulting death toll would probably haunt him.
I heard a long radio interview with Whitmer a couple of weeks ago and I must say that I was very impressed.
Story has it that Biden is suffering from Parkinson’s. A doctor who is an expert in Parkinson’s has visited the WH 8 times since August 2023. Parkinson’s greatly increases the risk of dementia.
Not only that, but I heard his mother was a hamster and his father smelt of elderberries!
See the NYT.