Elizabeth Warren is now the official front runner, per RCP. Their average of the polls now stands at Warren 26.6, Biden 26.4!
They use five credible polls to form the current average, and Warren has the edge in four of them. I personally expect Warren to pull quite a bit ahead, not so much because of Trump’s ongoing slander of Biden, but because of Bernie’s heart attack. I think we are going to see the Warren/Bernie wing consolidate behind Warren. We have seen little evidence of that so far, but I think it is inevitable. IBD shows that Bernie has dropped to 10%, which is the lowest he has been on any poll from a firm rated A- or better.
Kamala Harris is in fifth place behind Mayor Pete, and she’s also losing ground to Andrew Yang. (In fact, Yang beats her 8-to-4 in the latest Emerson poll, which is not used in the RCP average.)
Two of the five polls used in the average, Quinnipiac and IBD, are rated A- or better by the stats nerds at 538. Both of those polls show Warren in the lead. Both of those polls show that Buttigieg is in 4th, and that Yang has pulled into a tie for fifth with Harris.