The commmittee’s latest rankings are now public.
The conference championship games have been set.
In the most unlikely match-up, Virginia and Duke will play for the ACC championship. Duke needed about a zillion different things to happen in the last three weeks in order to crack the safe, and all the tumblers somehow fell into place.
If Virginia wins that game, they would be the fourth-best champion, and would therefore get the 11th seed. Duke, with five losses, is unlikely to make the playoff even with a conference championship. Only five conference champions get automatic bids, and they would likely be the sixth-best conference champion, assuming a James Madison win in the Sun Belt
A Duke win is not that unlikely. Virginia is only favored by 3.5.
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In the Big 12, Texas Tech will play BYU. Each team has something important to play for. Tech’s spot in the playoff seems secure, win or lose, but a Tech win is the difference between a first-round bye and a lower spot in the pecking order. A BYU win will guarantee them the tenth seed, but a loss will eliminate them from the playoff.
The game will be played in Arlington (Texas Tech is 300 miles away, in Lubbock), so I suppose neither team has a home field advantage, but Tech has the home state advantage. Tech is favored by 12.5.
WEIRDEST SCENARIO: A BYU win could give the Big Ten three of the first-round byes!
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The loss by Texas A&M means that Georgia and Alabama will play for the SEC championship. Georgia will make the playoff, win or lose, but a win will secure a first-round bye. An Alabama win would guarantee them at least the ninth seed if BYU wins, or at least the tenth seed if BYU loses. Alabama will be one of the bubble boys if they lose.
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Tulane and North Texas will battle for the American Conference title. Based on the committee’s rankings, the winner of that game is guaranteed a playoff spot. In the case of a Duke win in the ACC, the American champ would get the 11th seed. If Virginia wins the ACC, the American champ would get the twelfth seed.
The committee ranks Tulane higher than North Texas, but the bookies disagree. NT is favored by 2.5, even though they are on the road.
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James Madison will battle Troy for the Sun Belt crown. Madison is favored by more than three touchdowns. If they win, and Duke wins the ACC, Madison should get the twelfth seed, promoting the American Conference champion to the eleventh seed.
If Virginia wins the ACC. Madison can’t make the playoff unless the the committee vaults them over the American Conference winner into the twelfth seed. Such a leapfrog seems unlikely, but it’s not impossible because North Texas is only rated one slot higher than Madison in the national rankings, and they are the likely winner in their game against Tulane.
So the kids at James Madison need to steamroll Troy by about a zillion points and root North Texas to look bad in a win. That gives them a hope.
And even with that in the bag on Friday, they’ll also be rooting hard for Duke on Saturday night, because that one gives them a guarantee rather than a hope. This may mark the first time in history that someone other than a Duke student or alum ever rooted for them.
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In the Big Ten, Indiana and Ohio State are playing with house money. They will both make the playoff, the winner will get the top seed, and the loser will still get a first-round bye. (I assume. It’s unlikely that a loss would drop the loser to the fifth slot since that is currently occupied by idle Oregon, which finished below both of them in the same conference.)
The bubble boys
These eight teams seem completely safe for a playoff spot:
Ohio State
Indiana
Georgia
Texas Tech
Oregon
Ole Miss
Texas A&M
Oklahoma
The 11th and 12th seeds will go to the fourth and fifth best conference champions.
A. With a BYU win and an Alabama win, all twelve spots will be filled, leaving these two teams out of the playoff.
Notre Dame
Miami
B. With a BYU win and Alabama loss, there will be eleven secure spots, leaving only one for these three teams:
losing Alabama
Notre Dame
Miami
The committee has ranked Notre Dame over Miami, and they are both idle, so Miami is out in this scenario, and the committee would have to choose between losing Alabama and idle Notre Dame. That’s a tough call, likely to spur a lively debate between two of the most passionate fan bases in America.
C. If both BYU and Alabama lose, there will be only ten secure spots, meaning that two of these teams will make it
losing Alabama
Notre Dame
Miami
In this case, no matter the final ranking of Alabama, Notre Dame is in, and the committee would have to choose between losing Alabama and idle Miami. Another tough one.
Therefore, in order for Miami to make the playoff, three things must happen:
1. BYU must lose (likelihood high; they are 13-point dogs).
2. Alabama must lose (likelihood moderate; they are 3-point dogs).
3. The committee must vault idle Miami over losing Alabama. (likelihood unknown).
The Miami kids need to root for Georgia and Texas Tech.
Yes, I know it would be silly and unjust to leave Notre Dame and Miami out in the cold, while the weaker conference champions make it. The computer rankings list Notre Dame #2 in the nation, and Miami #6. Notre Dame would be nearly a three-touchdown favorite over North Texas or Tulane, approximately a two-touchdown favorite over James Madison, and about a ten-point favorite over BYU.
And Miami is just as good as Notre Dame. In fact, they already beat them earlier this year, thanks to two key Irish turnovers.
Yes, it would be unjust.
But the cookie may crumble that way.
If Duke and James Madison win, it’s almost for certain James Madison will get the bid over a five loss Duke team. The top five conference champions get in, everyone just always assumed the power four conferences would always lock them up. The five conference champions in that case would be SEC-B10-B12-American-Sun Belt.
Good point, although that will hinge on where the committee ranks Madison, North Texas, Tulane and Duke. The committee has so far refused to rank Madison or North Texas, and I can’t imagine Duke making the top 25 with five losses.
The committee likes Tulane and not North Texas, which makes no sense, given:
1. They had the same conference record.
2. North Texas has a better overall record.
3. North Texas is rated higher by the computers.
4. North Texas is the betting favorite in their upcoming game, despite being on the road.
To all the SEC homers crying for Alabama over IU in the playoff last year, I say leave Texas A&M out this year. The same case they made against IU applies to A&M.
A&M’s claim to fame is a 1-pt win over Notre Dame two-and-half months ago. Sagarin says they’re 5-1 against Top 30 teams, but that 5 includes the aforementioned 1-pt win over Notre Dame, a 6-pt home win over 5-6 Auburn, a 1-pt home win over 4-8 S.Carolina, and Ws over 7-5 LSU and 8-4 Mizzou.
A&M’s 8 SEC games included wins against 7 of the 9 worst teams in the conference, and a 27-17 beating by Texas that really wasn’t that close. A&M managed to avoid Ala, UGA, Ole Miss, Okla, Vandy, and Tenn, so their only loss being to the 5th place Longhorns is meaningful. An optimist might say A&M was 2 FGs and a TD from being 12-0, but they were also 2 opposing FGs and a TD from being 8-4, which is probably a more accurate representation.
Say what you will about the 2024 Hoosiers, but their only two losses were on the road to the National Champ and the Runner-Up.
GO HOOSIERS!
Finally, the THE opens up a can of Whup-Ass on those people Up There.
It’s amazing that OSU has become a sort of Wide Receivers U. Their most (in)famous coach Woody Hayes used to always say that three things can happen when you throw the ball and two of them are bad.
Remember that Woody was a lineman and played before modern helmets. The man’s head must have been well scrambled.
Kidding aside, the game has changed. (Except for the service academies, who still play in the 1950s style.)
Buckeyes beating ttun = order is restored to the universe. ☑️2025 is a good yr regardless. Winning the NC is just icing on the cake! 🎂
Do the James Madison Dukes need to root for Duke University.
Indeed!
ESPN has an article up right now about the playoff picture, wherein the writer makes the case for BYU by comparing them to Ole Miss. Again, it’s heresy to doubt the resume of an SEC team because the whole league is the 1985 Bears from top to bottom, but…
“As for BYU, the committee’s desire to overlook the Cougars makes no sense. Let’s take a look at a blind résumé, shall we? (Note: Best wins and composite top 40 based on an average of SP+, FPI and Sagarin ratings.)
Team A: No.6 strength of record, No.14 game control, best win vs. No.11, next vs. No.28, loss to No.5, four wins vs. composite top 40, five wins vs. teams that finished 7-5 or better
Team B: No.7 strength of record, No.10 game control, best win vs. No.13, next vs. No.27, loss to No.7, three wins vs. composite top-40, two wins vs. teams that finished 7-5 or better
Now, just based on that information, Team A would seem the obvious choice. Now what if I told you Team B just lost its head coach, too? That’s right, Team A is BYU and Team B is Ole Miss.”
Personally, I don’t need 5 or 6 SEC teams in the playoff. Give me 3 each from the BIG 10 and SEC, a couple from the Big 12, one each from the ACC and American, throw in Notre Dame and JMU, and let’s party.
Your theory is BS BYU got slaughtered by Texas Tech and will get beat again Saturday. the dumbest thing about this Division of Football is having 12 people that uses head to head for every team Okla ahead of Ala but not Miami over ND. Miami beat them and every common opponent Miami beat them by more than ND did. Its mute anyhow this year because no one is beating Ohio St. Using strength of schedule is BS most of teams scheduled were scheduled years ago could have been good then and bad now. And metrics in computer that Scoop like to show also BS also . Only sport doing this crap. Record and Head to Head is only thing that should matter. And We Know Ohio St will win it all even though Texas who they only beat by 7 and Mich only tough teams they played till this Sat the schedule was a cupcake. Doesn’t mean nothing because they are the best. so Schedule means nothing.
Y’know, Randy, I agree with you about everything. Except that head-to-head is nonsense, too. As I pointed out, Florida State beat Alabama. Stanford beat Florida State. Stanford should be in the top 8. Right?
But then Notre Dame beat Stanford. Miami beat Notre Dame. Their spots need to be Miami above ND above Stanford. Things could get kinda crowded at the top. And like firing squads, the head-to-heads often go in a circle.
MyKey the number 1 tiebreaker in any sport is Head to Head when teams are tied they use other means if teams didn’t play. Your examples don’t make sense because those teams aren’t in running. Okla is ahead of Ala because of Head to Head and Texas Tech over BYU because Head to Head but stops at Miami beat ND but behind them. Name and money.
*Two of the most obnoxious fan bases in America
That’s basically what I was saying, without actually saying it.