College Pigskin – the 2024 playoff selections

Committee decision #1: I noted last week that 11 of the 12 spots were already determined, and that in case of an SMU loss, the committee would have to choose between Alabama and SMU for the final slot. The SMU loss came to pass, and the committee chose SMU, so Alabama is the team that came the closest without getting in.

Committee decision #2: one of the weaknesses in the playoff system is that there is such a gap between what happens to the 4th-best, 5th-best, and 6th-best conference champions, even though there is little difference between their national rankings. The 4th best gets the grand prize – a first-round bye; the 5th best gets the dreaded #12 seed and the chance to go on the road as a two-touchdown underdog against one of the top teams in the nation; the 6th-best gets jack shit. Here’s how it worked out this year: Arizona State got the grand prize; Clemson got the basement slot; Army got jack shit.

I would have loved to see Army in that 12th seed for many reasons, not the least of which is that I would love to see how their oddball offense would stack up against Texas. In the conference championship against Tulane, Army’s QB had a perfect day – 2 for 2. In contrast to those two passes, the team ran 55 running plays. It worked! They won easily (35-14). On the other hand, that strategy was a disaster in their game against Notre Dame, which they lost by 35.

The first round byes:
1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Boise State
4. Arizona State

The first-round home teams:
5. Texas
6. Penn State
7. Notre Dame
8. Ohio State

The road teams in round 1:
9. Tennessee will play at Ohio State, winner plays Oregon
10. Indiana will play at Notre Dame (in-state rivals), winner plays Georgia
11. SMU will play at Penn State, winner plays Boise
12. Clemson will play at Texas, winner plays Arizona State

Penn State and Texas got the easiest paths to the final four.

• Penn State can do it by beating SMU (12 in the AP poll, 10 in the computer rankings) and Boise (8 and 30).
• Texas can do it by beating Clemson (13, 18) and Arizona State (10, 12)

Tennessee and Indiana have the most difficult paths.

• Tennessee would have to beat two of the best teams in the Big Ten, Ohio State (6, 3) and Oregon (1, 2)
• Indiana would have to beat Notre Dame (3, 1) in South Bend, then Georgia (2, 5).

The odds:

Texas, Georgia and Oregon are co-favorites to win it all, at +350.  Boise State opens at 60-1 if you love a long shot. They are the longest shot, despite a first-round bye, meaning they are considered to have on average only a 26% chance of winning each round.

Although Tennessee probably has a better chance of winning any given round than Boise, their path is more difficult, and they are probably closer to a 50-1 shot than their current 25-1.  The current odds imply that they have an average of 45% chance of winning each round.  I doubt that. Their four wins would have to be against first Ohio State, then Oregon, then (probably) Texas, then (probably) Georgia. The computer rankings say that list includes 4 of the 5 best teams! If Tennessee can pull that off, they would absolutely deserve a national championship. In other words, at 25-1 you are not getting good enough odds to make that bet.