It appears that Trump’s victory will be paired with a healthy advantage in the Senate, and probably control of the House as well.

It appears that it will be 312-226 in the electoral college.

The popular vote could be close, but it appears that Trump will win that for the first time. Harris underperformed Biden’s 2020 performance in about 90% of the counties with enough results to analyze, and in 100% of the states!

The Catholic vote has been overlooked. Biden defeated Trump 81m-74m overall, but Biden, who is a Catholic, took 52% of the Catholic vote, while Harris took only 41% against Trump and JD Vance, who is a Catholic. That alone caused a shift of 4 million voters from blue to red. If Biden had taken only 41% of the Catholic vote, as Harris did, he would have lost the popular vote by one million.

Harris also dropped a similar percentage (from 65% to 53%) among Latino voters, but many of those are the same voters as in the Catholic bloc. Harris lost about two million white Catholics and two million non-white Catholics.

Latino males had supported Biden 59-36. They rejected Harris 44-54.  This may be a shift to the right in Latino politics, or it may be that Latino males in particular reject the notion of a black, female President. The gender gap in 2024 was 17 points among Latino voters. It had been only 6 points in 2020, when there were two two male candidates.

Among white people, the gender gap was not as significant as the education gap. Trump wins 65% of white voters with no college degree, versus only 44% of white college graduates, so the education gap among whites is 21%. In contrast, the gender gap among whites is only 8%

• There is no education gap among non-whites. This is strictly a white characteristic.

Best jokes so far:

With two non-consecutive terms, you can now call him Groper Cleveland.

Harris shit the bed so bad Johnny Depp wants to marry her.

Do you think she can get her old job back at McDonald’s?

Based on the exit polls, Trump grabbed 53% of white women. He also got their votes.