Just a minor update. Based on the official committee rankings, South Florida would get the #12 seed instead of James Madison.
BOOO!!
I admit it. I’m openly rooting for James Madison.
You’ve already seen the rest of the post.
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Last week’s #2, undefeated Indiana, had a scare. They were losing with 40 seconds on the clock, but pushed over a last-minute TD to remain undefeated.
Indiana looks pretty safe for an undefeated regular season. Their only remaining games are against Wisconsin and Purdue, two basement dwellers in the Big Ten. They are pretty much a lock for a playoff spot even if they lose the conference championship game.
Last week’s #9 Oregon barely eked out a victory over #20 Iowa.
Last week’s #8 Texas Tech totally dominated #7, formerly undefeated BYU. BYU’s loss means that there are only three remaining undefeated teams in the FBS division, and they are ranked 1-2-3.
Last week’s #14 Virginia and #15 Louisville both lost to unranked teams. Virginia never scored a TD. Louisville took it into overtime before losing to Cal.
Last week’s #23 Washington lost to Wisconsin. The Wisconsin Badgers came into the game as the lowest-scoring team in the Fab Four conferences, at 13 points per game. Their offense was exactly that bad once again, but this time their usual 13 points was enough to defeat Washington.
Oddity of the week: Rutgers ran 69 plays from scrimmage, and 41 of them were rushes by Antwan Raymond. Assuming that football is a show as well as a sport, Antwan is now the hardest working man in show business. (He amassed 240 rushing yards, giving him exactly 1000 for the year.)
There is no especially dominant team in the very balanced ACC this year. It appears that none of their teams will make the top 12 in the rankings, so the ACC champ is likely to get the automatic #11 seed. Right now Georgia Tech, Virginia, Pittsburgh and SMU are tied for the conference lead. Their national ranks are 14, 20, 23 and NR respectively. Miami and Louisville are ranked 16 and 19 nationally, but are not currently among the conference leaders. In order to make the playoff, an ACC team would either have to win the conference championship game or make it into the top 10.
James Madison continued an underdog pursuit of that 12th playoff spot with a win over Marshall. If the regular season were now over, James Madison would be in the playoff, based on being 24th in the new AP poll! As I’ve noted before, there are only four strong conferences, but the top FIVE conference winners get an automatic bid. At the moment, James Madison is the top-rated conference leader outside the Fab Four, and would therefore get the #12 seed in the tournament. South Florida, Tulane and North Texas, co-leaders in the American Conference, are right on their heels, ranked 25, 26 and 28.
Last week’s #11 Texas, #12 Oklahoma and #13 Utah had the week off. Those three spots are crucial because they are the bubble boys. Exactly 12 teams make the playoffs. Because of exemptions for the conference champions from the ACC and one other conference to be determined, a team from the three strongest conferences must finish in the top ten to be sure of a spot. That’s also true of Notre Dame. As of this week’s AP list, Notre Dame and Texas would barely sneak in with the #9 and #10 seeds, while Oklahoma and Utah would just miss.
Overrated teams o’ the week
The current list. (Based on the new Sagarin computer ratings and this week’s AP poll.)
1. Virginia – 24 places (44,20)
2. James Madison – 17 places (41,24)
3. Georgia Tech – 16 places (30,14)
3. Cincinnati – 16 places (38,22)
5. BYU – 14 places – (26,12)
What happened to last week’s most overrated teams? They had a perfect week – no wins at all. (Based on last week’s Sagarin computer ratings and last week’s AP poll.)
1. 24 places – Memphis (46,22) – LOST to Tulane. They gave up 35 points in the first half.
2. 22 places – Virginia (34,12) – LOST; failed to score a TD against unranked Wake Forest.
3. 16 places – Georgia Tech (32,16) – Did not play.
4. 15 places – BYU (23,8) – LOST to Texas Tech; they fell behind 26-0 before scoring a meaningless TD in the fourth quarter.
5. 14 places – Cincinnati (39,25) Did not play.
Looks like we’ll have at least two joke teams in the CFP this year…
If you haven’t seen that last second Indiana catch, it’s totally worth looking it up. Crazy foot control
Even more impressive than the catch is the fact that the ref immediately made the correct call on the field. He put himself in perfect position to make the call. (Although the slo-mo would have shown the TD even if the ref had missed it.)
Your wrong Miami can get an at large bid. And its possible they get in and not ACC Championship winner. Also Notre Dame loses to Pitt this weekend and in 2 weeks Miami beats Pitt. Miami gets in and Notre Dame is out. If Duke wins ACC Championship game they have 4 losses Miami would go as at large team. You obviously didn’t watch Tuesdays show.
I wrote
“In order to make the playoff, an ACC team would either have to win the conference championship game or make it into the top 10.”
What I wrote is absolutely correct. If anyone wrote or said anything to contradict that, they are wrong.
If the events you describe get them the conference championship, they are in.
If they do not win the championship but finish in the top ten, they would be in.
If neither, they would be out. Simple as that.
The playoff teams are the five highest-ranked conference champions, and the seven highest-rated other teams.
Yes, they have a chance to do either of those things. (Many teams have a chance.)
Their odds against them winning the ACC championship are very long because they would need so many things to happen in their favor to allow them into that championship game. They are currently in seventh place in the conference.
But there are many ways they could slip into the top ten. They would have to win out, and some higher-ranked teams would have to lose, but it can happen. Sagarin’s computer model says they are the tenth-best team in the country, so it’s not time to write them off.
According to ESPN Analytics, Miami has a 5.9% chance of reaching the ACC title game (and therefore only a 3% chance of being the conference champ, assuming a 50% chance of winning the game), but they have 10% chance to reach the playoff. I think it might be a little better than 10%, given the remaining schedules of the contending teams.
head of committee disagrees with you saying “In order to make the playoff, an ACC team would either have to win the conference championship game or make it into the top 10.” Its highest ranked team and in this scenario Miami is higher ranked and leaving ACC Conference champion out since they can’t pass Miami without Miami losing again.
Here is what you are missing: the theoretical placement of Miami in the imaginary bracket is based on the projection that they will be the conference champion, because the ACC conference champion will get the 11th seed. But they have almost no chance of actually being the conference champion. They are in seventh place in the ACC.
As ESPN says:
As I have now said many times, in the real world, they have two chances: either win the conference or finish in the top ten. No other possibility.
Here is the official NCAA page. As you can see, they have slotted Miami in as the 11th seed only because they have assumed they will be the conference champion. But that ain’t gonna happen. (Well, it could, but they are about a 30-1 long shot.)
In the real world, if the season ended today without a conference championship game, Georgia Tech would be the conference champion, and as the 4th highest-ranked conference champion, would get the 11th seed in the tournament.
Here is what the NCAA page says:
Ohio State: 9-0
Indiana: 10-0
Texas A&M: 9-0
Alabama: 8-1
Georgia: 8-1
Texas Tech: 9-1
Ole Miss: 9-1
Oregon: 8-1
Notre Dame: 7-2
Texas: 7-2
Oklahoma: 7-2 (first team out of the CFP)
BYU: 8-1
Utah: 7-2
Vanderbilt: 8-2
Miami (Fla.): 7-2 (fourth highest-ranked conference champion)
Georgia Tech: 8-1
USC: 7-2
Michigan: 7-2
Virginia: 8-2
Louisville: 7-2
Iowa: 6-3
Pitt: 7-2
Tennessee: 6-3
South Florida: 7-2 (fifth highest-ranked conference champion)
Cincinnati: 7-2
Miami is the highest rated team in the ACC, but that’s not the same as being the conference champion, even though they have equated them for the purpose of that list. I suppose they’ve temporarily called them the champion because of the ranking thing, but the actual championship will be determined on the field. (And as I said, if the season were to end today without a tournament for some reason, it would be Georgia Tech.) It won’t matter if Miami is rated 11th nationally and the conference champion is rated 23rd. Even in that extreme case, the conference champion will get the 11th seed in the playoff and Miami will be out. (Unless both the American Conference champion and the Sun Belt champion are rated higher than the ACC champion, in which case there could no ACC team in the tournament at all unless Miami gets into the top 10! We have assumed that the ACC champion will be rated better than the Sun Belt and American champions, but … well … shit happens.)
Here are the current odds of making the playoff. Miami has an 14% chance, slightly better than SMU and Virginia. Georgia Tech, as the most likely conference champion, has a 34% chance.
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The bookies have a slightly different take, finding Miami much stronger than Virginia, Pitt or SMU, but still behind Georgia Tech
Current odds to make the playoff
Georgia Tech +220
Miami +350
Virginia +750
Pitt +800
If season ended right now
College Football Playoff Rankings, Nov. 11
* First-round bye | ~ First-round host | ^ Highest-ranked Group of Five team
Ohio State (9-0) *
Indiana (10-0) *
Texas A&M (9-0) *
Alabama (8-1) *
Georgia (8-1) ~
Texas Tech (9-1) ~
Ole Miss (9-1) ~
Oregon (8-1) ~
Notre Dame (7-2)
Texas (7-2)
Oklahoma (7-2)
BYU (8-1)
Utah (7-2)
Vanderbilt (8-2)
Miami (FL) (7-2) | No. 11 seed
Look who committee has as 11 seed and not in top 10
Also amazing was Auburn’s Cam Coleman making 2 one-handed catches in a row, one for a TD and one for the 2-point conversion that put the Vandy game into overtime. He will probably be playing for a much better school next year.